New bats reduce offense in 2011

by Dave Kisor and Devin Kisor

Heidelberg's Richardo Lizcano had fewer extra base hits in 2011 (23) compared to 2010 (38).

The offensive output changed in 2011 and will continue this spring as the bat standards mandated by the NCAA were implemented. Across the board scoring was down in 2011 compared to the previous year. 

On September 16, 2008, the NCAA informed baseball bat manufacturers that they were requiring the Ball-Bat Coefficient of Restitution (BBCOR) to replace the Ball Exit Speed Ratio (BESR) as the means for measuring bat performance in standardized testing. The NCAA intended the specification to direct manufacturers to provide a non-wood bat with similar performance to that of a wood bat and set the BBCOR standard at a value of 0.5. 

The 0.5 value means that there is an acceptable Bat-Ball Coefficient of Restitution, which is calculated using the inbound and outbound (rebound) speeds of the ball. With the new standards, the sweet spot is smaller and the outbound, exit or rebound speed has been decreased relative to non-wood bats from previous years. 

Bat manufacturers understood that the new bat specifications rule would be implemented for the 2011 season and they geared up, producing a number of bats that would meet the specifications. With the new standards, the question remained as to how would the newly produced bats impact the game?

Offense was down in 2011 after the new bat standards were implemented.

As usual, baseball statistics were available to help answer the question. We utilized the NCAA baseball statistics database and used standard statistical analysis to compare some of the power categories. The figure shows the number of players who had extra base hits in 2011 versus 2010. The data shows that there has been a big change in the number of players with more than 14 doubles, 3 triples or 6 home runs, all of which have fallen dramatically.

It is clear that the numbers of extra base hits was lower in 2011 as compared to 2010. Comparing the slugging percentage for the top 150 players in each year, the 2010 value (0.748%) was statistically higher versus 2011 (0.663%). Similarly, the top batting averages for 2010 and 2011 were compared and the average BA dropped 0.034 points, from 0 .440 to  0.416. With the decrease in the power categories the  runs per game decreased as well, 6.97 in 2010 and 5.82 in 2011.

While the offense was down in 2011 versus 2010, the pitching stats, relative to runs were up, with the average 2011 ERA being 2.13 versus 2.74 in 2010. Other pitching stats, such as strikeouts, were not statistically different from year to year (68.7 versus 71.4 for 2010 and 2011, respectively).

It is clear the NCAA BBCOR specifications have impacted scoring in Division 3 baseball. As the power numbers stay down, it makes defense and small ball a bigger part of the game. This change in the offensive numbers will be welcomed by baseball purists, those who enjoy a sacrifice bunt as much as a three-run home run.