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2007 NCAA Tournament preview
Tyler Dean, tied for the team lead with six homers, could help power Chapman through the regionals.
Tyler Dean, tied for the team lead with six homers, could help power Chapman through the regionals.
By Jim Dixon
D3baseball.com


All eight regionals are now filled with 53 teams looking for the chance to play for the national championship. The playoffs start on Wednesday, May 16, and continue through Sunday, May 20. Only then we will see which eight teams will go to the next round.

In this preview, we pick a Cinderella story (the dark horse who could advance) and a team most likely to disappoint, along with a champion for each bracket.

Hosted by Wooster, in Strongsville, Ohio
1. Wooster (40-5)
2. Otterbein (31-11)
3. Hope (28-11)
4. Marietta (28-14)
5. Ohio Wesleyan (24-13)
6. Mount St. Joseph (33-9)

This regional has the only two teams to be ranked in the No. 1 spot and last year's champion. Otterbein, ranked No. 1 in the preseason lost the top spot to Wooster and the Scots never looked back keeping the top spot for four consecutive polls. Marietta, last year's championship winner, was on the bubble but survived to play one more series as it defends its title.

Cinderella story: With a strong field, Ohio Wesleyan is our Cinderella team. They were not expected to be here and had to defeat Wooster twice in three games to get the NCAC automatic bid. If they can duplicate their NCAC success, Kyle Sherman and the rest of the Battlin' Bishops will get another week of baseball.

Most likely to disappoint: Otterbein. This year's preseason No. 1 with a veteran team, had to defeat Capital twice on the last day of the OAC tournament to secure its bid. The Cardinals never put things together this season and have the season everyone expected. The Cardinals get one more chance as now everyone is 0-0.

Champion: With a chance to get the conference automatic bid, Wooster stumbled against Ohio Wesleyan. The Scots have always responded from losses this season. They are the team that everyone thought Otterbein would be and should advance to the championship round.

Hosted by Eastern College Athletic Conference, Harwich, Mass.
1. Wheaton (Mass.) (31-11)
2. Eastern Connecticut (34-10)
3. Williams (25-8)
4. Curry (27-7)
5. Keene State (29-13)
6. Western New England (27-10)
7. St. Joseph's (Maine) (30-10)

Cinderella story: Keene State is not quite the prototype cinderella team but to get out of a regional that includes Wheaton and Eastern Connecticut everyone is a cinderella team. Keene State nearly unseated Eastern Connecticut as the Little East champion, falling just short. Meanwhile, the CCC has never had a representative in the championship round and to break through this year would be the definition of cinderella story. Chris Scarola with his monster season might not be enough to get the fourth seeded Colonels out of the regional but if they are taken lightly, they might advance.

Most likely to disappoint: Eastern Connecticut. Any time the Warriors don't advance it is a disappointment. They were the first team ever to run the table in the Little East so spending Memorial Day in Willimantic cannot be in 1,200-game winner Bill Halowaty's plan.

Champion: Wheaton and Eastern Connecticut were 1-2 in the regional rankings coming into the tournament and maintain that ranking now. Wheaton holds a 2-0 record against Eastern Connecticut and this trend should continue. Wheaton advances.

Hosted by Ferrum College, Ferrum, Va.
1. Emory (35-7)
2. Salisbury (32-8)
3. York (Pa.) (29-12)
4. Methodist (29-13)
5. Bridgewater (Va.) (21-21)
6. Ferrum (22-16)
7. Villa Julie (24-20)

The Ferrum regional has been set for some time. Salisbury and York were a lock and as expected Methodist slipped in with a pool C bid. The sentimental favorite is Ferrum -- not because they are playing on their home field but because their long-time coach, Abe Naff is retiring this season.

Cinderella story: The Panthers were in the middle of the pack in the USA South but earned the conference automatic bid when they captured the USA South tournament. They have a lineup that includes the USA South Player of the Year in Brett Thomas and could overtake the No. 1 seed.

Most likely to disappoint: Emory had a successful season that included the UAA championship in March. They have made the trip from Georgia north many times but have only two appearances in the championship round.

Champion: Salisbury had the hot hand early but cooled some in the middle of the season. They hit their stride in the CAC tournament where seeded fourth, they defeated the cream of the CAC on the road. The Sea Gulls are flying to Wisconsin.


Hosted by Ithaca at Auburn, N.Y.
1. Cortland State (35-4)
2. Ithaca (24-13)
3. St. John Fisher (26-11)
4. Manhattanville (23-17)
5. Trinity (Conn.) (28-6)
6. Skidmore (20-18)
7. Westfield State (20-15)

The New York region has always been dominated by a few teams. Twenty years ago it was Ithaca and now the dominant team is the Cortland State Red Dragons. Cortland State will not forget how it lost the regional last year, losing the final two games and their best player in the process.

Cinderella story: Not many people pegged the Bantams to even be here after not qualifying for the NESCAC tournament. But with Manhattanville to open and the chance to throw Tim Kiely in the second round against Cortland, Trinity (Conn.) has a chance to be a serious player.

Most likely to disappoint: Ithaca has not been to the championship round since 1994 and once again this does not appear to be their season.

Champion: Cortland State has rolled to a 35-4 record with the only speed bump being the losses to start the SUNYAC season to Brockport State. Brockport State is nowhere to be seen and the Red Dragons will not be satisfied unless they claim their first baseball championship. Cortland State should start making its hotel reservations at the Paper Lion Hotel in Appleton.

Hosted by Alvernia at Boyertown, Pa.
1. Kean (35-8)
2. New Jersey (32-9)
3. Johns Hopkins (35-9)
4. Gwynedd-Mercy (30-10)
5. Frostburg State (31-13)
6. Elizabethtown (22-16)
7. Wilkes (24-10)

How often has a NJAC team claimed this regional? The two NJAC representatives are the favorites once again and both are expected to make the regional finals.

Cinderella story: Everyone but the NJAC teams. Johns Hopkins has their usually fine season with a 4-2 record against the NJAC teams but with the only NJAC losses to The College of New Jersey. Wilkes, Gwynedd-Mercy, Elizabethtown will have to play over their heads to advance.

Most likely to disappoint: New Jersey has had great teams for the last few years. last year they forgot how to hit and were eliminated in close games. No. 1 seeded Kean will extract some revenge in losing the NJAC tournament in ousting the Lions once again from regional.

Champion: Check the teams in the championship round. Since automatic bids were given out for all conferences, there has been a team making their first appearance. This regional gives us yet another first timer: Kean.

Hosted by Illinois Wesleyan, Bloomington, Ill.
1. Luther (29-9)
2. Illinois Wesleyan (32-11)
3. Carthage (32-11)
4. Washington U. (30-9)
5. Webster (30-12)
6. Augustana (32-12)

Early in the season, it looked like this bracket, wherever it was hosted, would be filled with .500 teams. Somewhere during the season, perennial favorites, Carthage, Illinois Wesleyan, and Luther turned it on and we have a competitive regional that could produce the eventually national champion.

Cinderella story: Luther, a fourth place preseason pick in the IIAC, tied Wartburg for the best conference record and beat all comers to earn the automatic bid. The Norse are here to play and are looking for more than just a playoff appearance to add to their fine season.

Most likely to disappoint: Washington U. was in the same spot last year. In 2006 they got out to a hot start and slowly climbed in the poll but went two-and-out in the 206 regional. This year is no different and another 0-2 performance in the regional will be un-bear-able.

Champion: In the early part of the season, the Red Men were having trouble scoring runs. They found there form in midseason and rattled off enough wins to make the playoffs and continued their hot streak with the CCIW championship in hand. Pitching was never a problem and with both sides of the ball clicking, they will be difficult to stop.

Hosted by UW-Stevens Point, at Wisconsin Rapids, Wis.
1. UW-Stevens Point (28-14)
2. St. Thomas (32-10)
3. Ripon (21-13)
4. St. Olaf (31-8)
5. UW-Oshkosh (32-10)
6. St. Scholastica (36-6)

Have we not seen these same teams before? Five teams from last year's regional are back and looking for a Walnut and Bronze plaque to add to their trophy case; only UW-Oshkosh is new.

Cinderella story: How can Wisconsin-Oshkosh be a Cinderella team? The Titans were a surprise winner in the WIAC regular season picked to finish third. They also missed the last three playoffs.

Most likely to disappoint: St. Olaf was ranked sixth three weeks ago with only two losses. Since then, they lost the MIAC automatic bid and finished the end of the season 10-6.

Champion: St. Thomas' only appearances in the championship round is during a remarkable three years as the finished 2-2-1 in the nation. They have the team moving in the right direction and could they be starting another string of championship appearances?

Hosted by Chapman University, Orange, Calif.
1. Chapman (35-5)
2. Pacific Lutheran (32-7)
3. Texas Lutheran (35-8)
4. Texas-Dallas (32-11)
5. George Fox (30-9)
6. Pomona-Pitzer (29-11)
7. Austin (22-23)

With three teams from Texas, Orange, California might not sound like the obvious choice but once again Chapman will host the regional. The only sub .500 team, Austin, is here. Austin knocked out the top seeded Millsaps Majors and Rhodes Lynx from the SCAC playoffs. Millsaps and Rhodes were teams whose bubble burst.

Cinderella story: Pacific Lutheran's last conference baseball championship was in the Eisenhower administration. They knocked off a talented team in George Fox in their conference and could do it here.

Most likely to disappoint: Pomona-Pitzer. How far has the SCIAC has fallen? The SCIAC champion was a perennial favorite but has in the past few years have not been able to advance past some good Texas teams and Chapman.

Champion: Chapman has been strong all season long against the top teams. They should have competition from Texas Lutheran but the Panthers should represent the West region when the Fat Lady has sung.

Championship Round
Friday-Tuesday, May 25-29, 2007 at Time Warner Cable Field at Fox Cities Stadium in Grand Chute, Wis.

A few months back in January I made a prediction on who would make it to the Championship round. My Southern Maine and N.C. Wesleyan picks never made the playoffs. My crystal ball must have been cloudy that day as D3baseball's prediction with the regular season ended has just three teams remaining on my list (Carthage, Chapman, and Kean).

The last back-to-back champions were Glassboro State (now Rowan) in 1978-79. This is the longest current string in any championship at any NCAA level without a repeat winner.

Wooster, Wheaton, St. Thomas, Cortland State, Chapman, Carthage, Kean and Salisbury will make this a competitive series. Pitching will be the strength of many of these teams but they all know how to hit.

First round matchups for the championship site will be as follows:

Ferrum regional winner vs. Wisconsin-Stevens Point regional winner
Illinois Wesleyan regional winner vs. Eastern Collegiate Athletic Conference regional winner
Chapman regional winner vs. Wooster regional winner
Alvernia regional winner vs. Ithaca regional winner

 

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